Friday, January 8, 2010

Commodity Call Bullish In 2010 — Fundamentals Will Matter

Feature: We expect commodities to perform again in 2010, with returns potentially outpacing the gains exhibited in 2009. Total returns in 2009 (S&P GSCI +13.5%) were driven by marked increases in spot prices — although we are anticipating spot prices to increase further in 2010, we believe the magnitude of spot price increases will not compare to 2009. However, with global GDP growth poised to rebound to 4.0%, driven largely by strength in the commodity-intensive EM, we anticipate inventories will tighten, reducing the roll cost associated with oversupplied markets. Our top picks include gold until the Fed hikes rates, deferred oil, long corn/short beans until planting intentions are released, long sugar until April, and long copper.[morgan stanley]


1 comment:

  1. Hey! Not sure if you saw my last comment, I bury them in your blog so that you don't look like a request line..

    But if you can grab any MBT (Mobile Tel MTS) reports and throw 'em on scribd one day or even email me ... big thanks... if not, no worries..

    here's another new one for ya: