Many investors believe that the developed-economyrecovery could be aggressive; certainly, much
stronger than the current economic consensus. The evidence for this is the stellar performance of a number of tried-and-true leading indicators, some of which now flag a rebound of multi-decade vigor. We don’t buy it. But the more important point is this: Risk assets have already performed consistently with those upbeat leading indicators. The ‘surprise’ is, in our view, increasingly in the price of risk assets, particularly equities.
Downunder Daily the Expected Surprise
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