Saturday, January 23, 2010

SP Earnings Packet & 4Q09 Earnings Season Update 1.22.10

4Q09 Earnings Season

The 4Q earnings season is entering full swing, with 55 of the S&P 500 companies (representing 16% of total market cap) having reported. On a $-weighted basis, earnings have beaten expectations by 81.4%, mainly due to C, BNY, and WFC which reported 72%, 56%, and 94% above expectations respectively. With half of the Financials having reported, our Banks analyst Betsy Graseck notes that NPL growth rates for large cap banks are slowing. Ex-Financials, earnings are beating expectations by 12.0%, and only 16% of companies have reported more than 5% below expectations. Page 7 shows the aggregated S&P ex-Financials income statement based on the companies that have reported. While revenues are 1.5% above expectations, EBITDA margins are470 bps below expectations (mainly due to IT and Materials). The index is now pacing $16.42 in 4Q09 EPS compared to $16.04 at the start of the earnings season, putting 2009 EPS at $56.10.

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