Misunderstandings about yen appreciation
A strange quarter
Oct-Dec 2009 was a strange quarter. The Asian economy was expanding, and the
US economy was on a recovery track at an accelerated pace. Inflationary
expectations increased in the US. The VIX declined and suggested that the
market’s risk appetite was increasing. Japan benefited from such trends. Japan’s
real exports rose a strong 5.0% qoq in Oct-Dec. Thanks to strong external demand,
real GDP rose 4.6% qoq (annualised), suggesting that the recovery has been
sustained. Exports remained strong and grew a strong +40.9% yoy in January.
External demand is expected to contribute to real qoq GDP growth in Jan-Mar as
well. Meanwhile, market sentiment was very weak in Oct-Dec.
Market sentiment deteriorated because of the yen’s strength
In late November, the government declared that Japan is in a state of ‘deflation,’
and concerns about a deflationary spiral and a double-dip increased. The yen’s
strength was the key reason. A stronger yen tends to enhance deflationary
expectations, depressing market sentiment. Partly reflecting the decoupling of bank
stocks in the US and Japan, Japan’s 3m LIBOR has risen and remained above that
of the US since last September. The BoJ left the reversal unattended until
December when it finally decided to increase the supply of 3m funds. Increased
risk tolerance globally probably resulted in larger US dollar carry trades. Strong
external demand and weak overseas investments by Japanese companies have been
behind the yen’s strength in the first place, and the reversal of the interest rate
levels pushed the yen higher.
Strong yen not due to weak overseas growth should not cause a double-dip
The stock market tends to be very sensitive to the yen’s strength, thus the Nikkei
index trended lower. However, growth was strong in Oct-Dec, so the market may
have been overly concerned, and indeed, the Nikkei rebounded. If the yen is not
driven higher by weaker overseas growth, we do not believe that Japan’s export
recovery would come to a halt due to the yen’s strength. Indeed, Japanese exports
are highly correlated with US household consumption. Thus far, they have both
been recovering more or less in tandem. Meanwhile, the yen/dollar rate and exports
are not highly correlated.
Misunderstandings about yen appreciation causing excessive concerns
A higher yen could actually negatively impact corporate earnings. Export oriented
companies’ earnings results are compressed by a higher yen. However,
surprisingly, aggregate earnings of large manufacturers are not strongly correlated
with the yen/dollar rate. Historically, large manufacturers’ aggregate recurring
profit has tended to be negatively correlated to the yen/dollar rate. A higher yen
does not necessarily compress recurring profit. Exceptional periods include the
early 1990s during the collapse of the economic bubble and at present alongside
the collapse of the credit bubble. In both cases, the yen’s rise coincided with a
weak economy in the US. At other times, when exports (earnings) were strong, the
yen rose, and when exports (earnings) were sluggish the yen weakened; the
stabilisation mechanism of the trade balance may have been functioning more
effectively. If the yen’s strength is causing the market to be overly concerned (the
market’s misunderstanding), then if and when the yen’s strength runs its course,
the stock market’s upside may be large. When the US economic recovery
accelerates and makes it seem very likely that the Fed could hike rates in H2, that
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