Thursday, February 18, 2010

NVDA Corporation

Investment Thesis

• We believe that Nvidia is in the midst of navigating a changing revenue profile, driven by competitive pressure from Intel and AMD in its chipset and discrete GPU businesses, and emerging growth in its Tegra and
Tesla businesses.

• We are concerned that Nvidia will find it difficult to maintain share in GPU products, due to AMD/ATI’s aggressive pricing, a mix shift to the
low end, and competitive pressure from Intel.

Key Value Drivers

• Penetration of workstation, handset, and new GPU compute markets.
• Gross margins.
• Strategy changes, or new product announcements, including potential
entry into the PC microprocessor (MPU) market.

Potential Catalysts

• Announcements about major new products or design wins in the mobile handset market.
• Fast ramp of 40nm products.

Potential Risks

• Slower than expected ramp of Intel’s new integrated MPU+GPU products.
• Unexpectedly strong consumer demand environment leading to
inflated GPU sales.
• Faster than expected ramp of Tegra, at higher than expected gross


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