SP500 technical update 02.18.10

· SP500 technical update – from JPMorgan’s M Krauss - Another firm day with decent
breadth, as the S+P is entering the first key resistance in the post-1044.50 Feb 5 low rally.
These ST upside targets are 1097 (Jan 19 50% retrace), 1105 (Feb 2 peak), and 1110 Jan 19
61.8% retrace). Be careful of a failure, as that would imply a retest, if not a 1029-1019 lower
low in March. Medium term resistance rests at the 1115 Jan 22 flush, and 1130 Jan range
break. The 1150.45 Jan 19 peak neared four big targets at 1145-1159. Short term support
rests at Tues’ 1076.75-1079.13 bullish hourly gap up. Last week based above 1060, after Feb
5 held the 1043 July 38% retrace/4th-wave obj. Created strong daily momentum bullish
divergences, amid pessimistic sentiment measures. Upside reversal month in Feb above
1074. MT support: 1035 10% drop, 1029 Nov low, 1026 Jan-Feb c=a, 1026 200 day MA, and
1019 Oct trough. Our 2010 Outlook suggests a range view between 950-1000 and 1150-
1200, with a best case to 1229/1240.