Thursday, March 4, 2010

03.04.10 Economics/Central Bank Headlines Catalysts to Watch $TLT #GREECE

Catalysts to Watch 4:59PM

·         Central Banks - China’s National People’s Congress starts Mar 5

Economics calendar – daily view

·         Friday, Mar. 5th: US (Monthly non-farm payrolls/unemployment rate, Consumer Credit); Eurozone (German Retail Sales); Other (n/a).

Corporate events calendar

·         Thurs Mar 4: Earnings after the close (MENT, MOVE, EVC, SLW, GA, ARST, ALSK, MRVL, COO). 

·         Fri Mar 5: earnings before the open (AYR, BBGI).  Analyst meetings (GAS, THI). 

Economics/Central Bank Headlines

·         Initial jobless claims fell 29,000 to 469,000 in the week ending February 27, more than reversing a 24,000 rise in the week ending February 20. The snowstorms and possibly the Presidents Day holiday caused the rise in claims in the week ending February 20, and a fall in claims in the latest week was expected. Unfortunately, claims remain at a high level, and they are above the recent low of 432,000 at the end of December. Jobless claims suggest that employment was still falling slightly or at best stable in February, excluding temporary distortions. The major distortion in February was the snowstorms. Because of those, we continue to expect that nonfarm payroll employment will decline 90,000 in tomorrow’s labor market report.  A Reinhart 

·         Pending home sales declined 7.6%m/m in January following a 0.8% rise in December and a 13.7% fall in November. The index has declined a collective 19.6% since its peak in October. Home sales have been concerning recently, as a good part of the strength last fall looks to be have been related to the anticipated expiration of the new homebuyer tax credit and not by an organic surge in demand. The tax credit was extended and expanded in early November, but sales were still slumping in January (new home sales dropped to a new all-time low in the month).  A Reinhart 

·         ECB decision takeaways - This ECB meeting and press conference brought news on three issues. First, the main policy rate was left unchanged, and while the ECB’s forecasts for growth and inflation saw little change, growth for 2011 was revised up slightly. Second, the ECB continued to wind back its enhanced credit support measures a little quicker than we had anticipated at the beginning of the week. Third, Trichet was keen to emphasise that European institutions were functioning properly, he repeated the endorsement of Greek measures issued by the ECB yesterday, and suggested that IMF support for Greece in the form of actual lending rather than technical assistance was not appropriate.  Greg Fuzesi 

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