Global Uranium: Another Uptick in the Spot Price
The majority of participants surveyed view North American (NA) year-end spot conversion prices as remaining close to current prices at $5.50-$7.00/kg range (currently $5.75/kg). This is largely due to the large UF6inventory levels and limited demand for conversion services. For the year-end European (EU) spot conversion price, the consensus also sees a relatively flat price at $7.50-$8.50/kg range (currently $8.00/kg). In five years, survey participants see the spot conversion price almost doubling in NA to $10-14/kg and in EU to $13-15/kg as expansions are limited and demand rises with the loss material supplied from HEU. Enrichment. Spot enrichment prices, which have been steadily increasing over the past few years, are expected to continue on trend; however, relative to UxC's current spot separative work units (SWU) price of $160 the consensus year end price is in-line, signaling that the increase is further than nine months out. Feedback from utilities are largely of the view that long-term SWU prices will begin a downward trend beginning in 2014 as new supply comes online, Russia increases its market share, and lower demand for SWU is realized as reactor builds are delayed.
China Wind Equipment: The door is open to construct off-shore wind farms
National Energy Bureau has recently notified 11 provinces and cities to submit their proposed off-shore wind power concession projects for approval, the first step of the central authorities to expedite off-shore wind resource development. In our view, developing off-shore wind resources is a good way out for wind farm investors to stay away from the grid connection bottleneck of on-shore wind projects in the short term. The government's action will definitely encourage investing in off-shore projects in China in the long term. However, we expect this event to have limited effect on total newly installed wind capacity growth in the next two years. Based on historical experience; we estimate that the share of off-shore projects is tiny versus 25GW of total wind capacity in 2009. Wind investors would be more cautious on off-shore projects, given the higher construction, electricity transmission and maintenance costs. We maintain our MARKETWEIGHT stance on the sector.
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