We expect that employment dropped 90,000 in February after changes of -20,000 in January, -150,000 in December, and +64,000 in November. We also expect that the unemployment rate, which fell from 10.0% to 9.7% last month, rose to 9.9%.
Payroll employment. The February employment report will be negatively distorted by snowstorms and positively distorted by 2010 Census hiring, with the snowstorms more than offsetting the Census hiring. Excluding the distortions, the underlying trend in payrolls is probably flat at best. The three-month (HERE) rolling average of payroll changes shows that job losses have steadily moderated over the last year.
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