EUROPEAN BREAKFAST BRIEFING 5 March 2010 $FXI $FXE

OVERNIGHT BULLET POINTS
● Singapore & Qatar SWF committed to underwrite a large portion of Pru's rights issue
● Prudential shareholders threaten to block record rights issue
● Canada 2010 budget f/c a C$53.8 bln deficit with debt expected to be 33.9% of GDP
● Fed Bullard says that he is worried about the jobless claims data
● ECB Constancio said co-ordinated intervention may be warranted if FX volatility excessive
● FDIC chief Sheila Bair pressing banks/lenders on mortgage modification
● S.Korea 2009 GDP to post small growth with the job situation still serious
● China's banking regulator says the pace of lending is now stable
● PBOC Su Ning says the cb will adjust policy to meet the 3% inflation target for 2010
● China PM says will follow proactive fiscal policy & pusue appropriate monetary policy
● China WTO Ambassador Sun urged the US not to push for Yuan rise
● CBRC says there are no special loan curbs on property





EUROPEAN PREVIEW
The marquee event of the week the US Feb NFP is a little less than ordinary given the severe snow storms
bashing the US East Coast. This will make forecasting the data a bit more hazardous than usual given that the
severe weather will likely have a sizeable impact on the govt hiring for the 2010 census with f/c centred on a -45K
in payrolls while the unemployment rate is f/c to be unchanged at 9.8%. We believe a number closer to -60/70K is
more likely with the rate climbing back up to 10.0%. Avg hourly earnings & workweek f/c unchanged at 0.3% &
33.3% resp. Consumer credit f/c at -$4.2 bln(-1.7). EUR back on the defensive after the ECB left rates at 1.0%
stating that growth will be moderate & inflation will remain near 1.0% with declining Greek bonds also weighing.
German mfg orders f/c at 15.4% y/y(8.4). GBP also retreated after the BOE stay pat at 0.5% & keeping the door
open for further expansion of its QEP. Singapore's GIC & Qatar to underwrite a huge chunk of Prudential's $21 bln
right issue for its takeover of AIG Asian unit could be a dampener for the GBP. UK PPI input f/c at 7.5% y/y(8.4) &
output at 4.1% y/y(3.8).

EUROPEAN BREAKFAST BRIEFING -