Monday, March 22, 2010

The Globaliser (citigroup research) $SPY

Economics and Currencies
A French speed-hump ahead
'France - difficult times ahead', opines the Euro Weekly, 'for while the French economy did well in recent years and managed to get through the global economic crisis better than the rest of the euro area countries, a rapid expansion in the leverage of the economy was behind the solid GDP performance… but with deleveraging quite likely in coming years, government growth assumptions out to2013 appear far too high, particularly as the government plans substantial fiscal tightening… as a consequence, the current spread between French and German government bonds looks too narrow to us'.

The risk in gilts

'The message at present', notes the Sterling Weekly, 'is the UK's anti-inflation credibility has been significantly eroded over the last year or two… and worries over the UK's inflation and fiscal credibility may well grow in coming months… for a Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition probably is not feasible, while a Labour/Lib Dem coalition - though perhaps feasible - would not favour early fiscal consolidation… gilts therefore remain vulnerable, especially at the front end'.

India's surprise rate hike

'While rate hikes have been on the cards', agree Indian Economists Malkani & Shah, 'the timing of the RBI's raising of the repo and reverse repo by 25bps, to 5% and 3.5% respectively, was a surprise… with the RBI voicing concerns on inflation… leaving us to expect the RBI to hike rates again in April and cumulatively by an additional 100bps in 2010'.

The Globaliser

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