Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Market Commentary By Art Cashin March 23, 2010 (UBS RESEARCH) $SPY

Cashin’s Comments

On this day in 1775, at the Second Virginia Convention, in the city of Richmond, a firebrand delegate rose and cut through the smoke of compromise. His speech was unique. As any public speaker will tell you, a good speech is one where the audience stays awake. A great speech is one that changes the mind of the audience. But best of all is a speech that outlives the event and maybe even outlives the speaker.

Well, this was some speech. The speaker's name was Patrick Henry. And the awesome construction, pacing and ringing of his speech was so great that it ranks in the English language as one of the five best. (Shakespeare's "Marc Antony's elegy of Caesar" and, of course, Churchill edging it out.) But every schoolboy knows the climax of this great speech - - "....Our brethren are already in the field. Why stand we here idle? What is it that gentlemen wish? What would they have? Is life so dear....or peace so sweet as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take, but as for me, give me Liberty or give me Death!"

To mark the date stop by the House of Burgess Tavern and order some "Liberty" Ale. But if they don't have Liberty on tap try not to be too picky.

Yesterday’s markets did not offer a dramatic choice between liberty and death. They offered a more prosaic choice between the Euro and the Dollar.

Bouncing Buck Boosted Bears Briefly Before Battering Their Hopes Late Day – Monday morning stock futures, oil and gold were under pressure as Merkel’s comments on Greece put the Euro under real pressure and lifted the dollar.
Shortly after the U.S. opening, the dollar (DXY) rally turned on a dime, after hitting 81.08. The dollar rally then seemed to evaporate as commentators suggested that Germany and others would yield at Thursday’s EU summit.
The pullback in the dollar allowed stocks to rally into plus territory around 10:00. Oil, which had been down about $2.00, began to climb back out of the hole. Gold improved but not at the same rate as stocks and oil. By late morning, the DXY actually fell into negative territory. That brought more buyers into stocks and oil. Crude joined stocks on the plus side.

Throughout the afternoon, stocks played in plus territory. They failed, however, to match or exceed Friday’s intra-day highs. Additionally, the volume shrank by half compared to Friday’s expiration. The uptick was pleasant but not conclusive. The game is still on the table. here

Market Commentary By Art Cashin March 23, 2010

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