Monday, March 29, 2010

SP500 technicals update $SPY

Little change to view, after Thurs' 1180.68 bearish outside day, from a fresh bull market high. Met the 1177 Jan-Feb H&S obj. Short term bearish divergences have been a growing concern. Odds are increasing that the market is forming a near term top. Closes below the 1156 Feb CH low, and 1150 Jan peak would confirm a ST top. Break to 1135 Mar 9 low, then 1126 Mar 3 high. MT support rests at 1116/1112. Bigger picture, the recent new highs in the NYSE cumulative AD line confirm the rally highs. Cyclical bull markets usually peak months after this indicator turns down. Next resistance rests at the 1195 Feb channel high, 1196 Oct- Jan uptrend line, then macro resistance for 2010: 1200 July '08 low/break, 1229 Oct '07 61.8% retrace, and 1240 '08-'09 Head and Shoulders bottom obj. Latter is viewed as a ceiling.

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