Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Technical Updates and Desk Color

·         SP500 technical update from M Krauss - Lift to 1116.11, after last Thur’s 1086 low substantially held the Feb 5 (1044.40 low) 50% retrace, and 1076.75-1079.13 Feb 17 hourly bull gap.  Now testing 1110-1116 interim targets, including the 1110 Jan 19 61.8% retrace and 1115 Dec range break. Closes above 1116 seek 1122/1128 swing objs, and the 1130 Jan range break barrier. Day supports 1107-1105. Fri did affirm a Feb upside reversal month above 1074 (Mon already met min “higher high”). The 1044.50 Feb 5 low held the 1043 July 38% retrace/4th-wave obj. Secondary support at 1035 10% drop, 1029 Nov low, 1026 Jan-Feb c=a, 1026 200 day MA, and 1019 Oct trough. The 1150.45 Jan 19 peak neared four targets at 1145-1159. We do not think the S+P has seen its high (or low) for this year. Our 2010 Outlook suggests a range view between 950-1000 and 1150-1200, with a best case to 1229/1240.


·         PT desk color - 1.31 to 1 better to buy - very strong flow today; Large Cap 66% and Mid Cap 27% of total Market Cap; Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Industrials, and Information Technology better to buy; Energy and Health Care better to sell. 

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