Sunday, May 16, 2010

Has Europe failed again w/its bailout announcement? It’s too soon to say.

Has Europe failed again w/its bailout announcement? It’s too soon to say. While sentiment had moved from euphoria on Moiconn to pessimism on Fri, the plan unveiled last Sun has helped. Sovereign CDS spreads have collapsed (Greece from 10004bp on 5/7 down to 523 on Wed before widening back out to 618 on Fri; Portugal went from 443bp on 5/6 down to 200 on 5/13 before widening to ~231 on Fri; Spain from ~247bp on 5/6 down to 126 on Thurs before widening back out to 143bo on 5/14) and cash bond prices have stabilized. The euro has continued to slump (it’s been moving in whole penny increments lately and slipped right through the 1.25 and 1.24 levels on Fri) although this would be somewhat expected if the ECB is embarking down the road of QE. European bank shares have rallied, although a lot of this was a massive short-covering move on Mon and the stocks spent much of the week  moving back lower.

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