Monday, May 31, 2010

The J.P. Morgan View:  More market than economic correction.

· Asset allocation: Medium-term positive view on risky assets remains in place, even as we recognise continued volatility over the next month.

· Economics: Damage to real economy from market sell off is modest so far, keeping growth forecasts on hold.

· Fixed Income: Short-dated Euro area high-yielders offer value for investors who can weather near-term volatility.

· Equities: Overweight markets that are more remote from the epicentre of the crisis, such as US industry groups with little euro exposure, and India and Mexico in EM.

· Credit: We maintain an underweight in European senior bank debt, especially that of Spanish banks.

· FX: A rebound in risky assets should ultimately help EUR slide down further, mostly versus EM and commodity currencies.

· Commodities: Commodity prices to move higher in the medium term.

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