Monday, June 14, 2010

Catalysts to Watch; Fin Regulatory Reform;Fed’s term deposit facility dates; European bond sales

Catalysts to Watch
· S&P rebalance - The quarterly share rebalance for the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, S&P SmallCap 600 Indices will take place at the close of business Friday, June 18, 2010.  The Russell rebalances will occur June 25. 
· Expiration – quadruple expiration coming up. 
· May-end earnings season continues – BBY Tues morning and FDX Wed morning.  Bunch more week of Mon June 21 (RIMM, ADBE, ORCL, JEF, NKE, etc). 
· Energy/BP – a lot of events to watch.  There is a House hearing on Thurs before which BP CEO T Hayward will speak and BP’s chairman is going to the White House on Wed.  BP’s board is going to be meeting on Mon to discuss the dividend (although the company isn’t expected to make an official announcement on Mon).  Obama is expected to call for BP to create an “escrow account” to help cover costs related to the spill, something the board will discuss at its Mon gathering.  Also - Obama next week will visit Alabama, Florida and Mississippi Mon/Tues and will address the nation Tues night. 
· Fin Regulatory Reform – reconciliation process will continue (next conference will be this Tues).  There really isn’t any set specific events for this but the goal is to have the process wrapped up and finished by Jul 4.  In terms of the big issues for stocks: 1) Volcker Rules (seems like language could be strengthened, which is a neg. for banks); 2) Lincoln swaps/derivatives (Lincoln’s victory  this week gives this amendment a shot in the arm although still seems like major players, inc, Dodd, Geithner, etc, aren’t for it); 3) Durbin (there is mounting bipartisan opposition to this amendment); 4) Collins (she has already acknowledges that tweaks will have to be made to this, esp. around TruPS). 

· Senate Vote on bill that would extend unemployment benefits and raise taxes on carried interest to potentially take place. 
· Fed’s term deposit facility dates - The first auction will be held June 14 and will offer $1 billion of 14-day term deposits.
· Credit Cards – master trust numbers for the month of May hits on Tues June 15
· Brokers – we will receive DART numbers from the likes of ETFC, AMTD, and SCHW in the week of June 14 (we received SCHW this morning). 
· Eco – Highlight in the US will be the first look at the June eco numbers in the Empire Manufacturing Index. In addition, we’ll get the PPI and CPI inflation numbers along with Industrial Production. In Europe, ZEW surveys for the Eurozone and Germany will hit along with UK retail sales. Central Banks will be active with interest rate decisions from the BoJ and SNB and meeting minutes/reports from the ECB, and Reserve Bank of Australia.
· European bond sales - Spain will sell two long bonds, the 4% April 2020 and 4.70% July 2041, on Thurs; also on Thurs: France will sell up to EUR9.8 billion of three series of BTAN bonds maturing in 2012, 2013 and 2015, and three series of inflation-linked bonds maturing in 2017, 2023 and 2040.  DJ 
· First Look At Week of June 21 – a lot of May-end earnings (RIMM, NKE, ORCL, more).  FOMC decision (June 23). 
· Early look at Q2 earnings – earnings start week of Mon Jul 12 – AA starts things off on Mon Jul 12.  INTC is Jul 13, GE/BAC/C are Jul 16.
Economics Calendar – Daily View
· Monday, June 14th: US (n/a)
· Tuesday, June 15th: US (Empire Manufacturing, TIC Flows, Import Prices, ABC Consumer Confidence); Eurozone (UK CPI, UK House Prices, German & Eurozone ZEW); Other (BoJ Rate Decision, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes).
· Wednesday, June 16th: US (MBA Mortgage Applications, PPI, Housing Starts, IP, Capacity Utilization); Eurozone (UK Jobless Claims, Eurozone CPI, Bloomberg Global Confidence); Other (BoJ Monthly Report).
· Thursday, June 17th: US (Jobless Claims, CPI, Current Account Balance, Leading Indicators); Eurozone (ECB Publishes Monthly Report, UK Retail Sales, Eurozone Construction Output); Other (Japan Leading Index, BoJ Meeting Minutes for May meeting).
· Friday, June 18th: US (n/a); Eurozone (German PPI); Other (n/a).
Corporate Events Calendar To Watch
· Mon June 14: earnings after the close (LZB, KFY)
· Tues June 15: earnings before the open (BBY, FDS); analyst meetings (SocGen, AGU, SRX, HOS update conf call)
· Wed June 16: earnings before the open (FDX, Sainsbury); earnings after the close (IHS); analyst meetings (MT, SUN, IPI) 
· Thurs June 17: earnings before the open (JW’a, SFD, SJM, ATU, KR, WGO); earnings after the close (SMOD); analyst meetings (VRX, MCK, PGR, STM)

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