Friday, June 25, 2010

Catalysts to Watch “Implications of the Financial Reform Bill” 06-25-10

SAN FRANCISCO - MARCH 4:  California Supreme C...
Catalysts to Watch
· Russell rebalance Fri  
· the next two weeks will be very quiet on the US corporate front as we gear up for the start of Q2 earnings on Mon Jul 12 (AA comes after the close on that day).  There are a few more May-end releases to watch (MU Mon, GIS on Tues, MON on Wed, and STZ on Thurs), but investor focus is increasingly shifting to the Q2 reports.  Vacations will uptick in the coming two weeks given the dearth of major news and the Jul 4 holidays (US markets are closed on Mon Jul 5).  The biggest event of the week will be the June jobs report on Fri Jul 2 (the St is currently modeling a loss of 88K jobs for June).  Investors will also be watching the auto sales reports for June on Thurs Jul 1.  This weekend, the G20 leaders summit will take place in Toronto, although no major news is expected to come of this event (there were press reports that a new Basel liquidity proposal will be circulated that would be a mild positive for the banking industry, although a lot still remains up in the air when it comes to this issue).  The China yuan announcement last Sat appears to have taken the FX issue off the table while it doesn’t seem like the major countries have come to an agreement around bank taxation and/or regulations.  The US will press Germany to not pursue fiscal austerity measures too quickly, although Germany has fought back hard against such
criticisms and hasn’t indicated any willingness to let up on its budget cuts.  In Washington, Congress will vote on the financial regulatory reform bill (the House is scheduled for Tues).  There will be two important confirmation hearings in the Senate (Kagan for Supreme Court starting Mon and Petraeus starting Tues; Politico says the Petraeus hearings in particular could provide an opportunity for several Senators to express their displeasure on the current course of events in Afghanistan).  In China, we will get the June PMIs (June 30).  In Europe, the Spanish "cajas" banks are supposed to have their consolidation plan wrapped up by June 30, although the really big news from EU banks won't come until mid-Jul (when the stress tests get published). 
· JPMorgan Conf Call Mon @ 8:30amET “Implications of the Financial Reform Bill”
Corporate Events For Week of June 21 
· Mon June 28: earnings before the open (Taylor Wimpey, Standard Chartered trading updates), earnings after the close (MU); analyst meetings (Siemens)
· Tues June 29: earnings before the open (WOR, GIS); analyst meetings (Wacker Chemie, Siemens, BKS)
· Wed June 30: earnings before the open (MON, LNN, SJR, Schroders, PartyGaming); earnings after the close (APOL, XRTX)
· Thurs Jul 1: earnings before the open (STZ, MXB, MSM); sales (autos companies post June sales); analyst meetings (GIS) 
· Mon Jul 5: US markets closed for Jul 4 holiday
· Tues Jul 6: sales (WAG)
· Wed Jul 7: earnings (WDFC, FDO)
· Thurs Jul 8: earnings (LWSN, MAN Group), sales (retailers will be posting same-store-sales for month of June) 
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