Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Catalysts to Watch;Bernanke speaks; Corporate Events Calendar; ECB meeting Thurs morning

Catalysts to Watch

· ECB meeting Thurs morning (recall after last meeting sp500 sold off 3.2% due to a failure to address investor worries on sovereign debt; it will be critical for stocks to see if Trichet & Co have found religion by this meeting & press conf); preview from JPMorgan’s Greg Fuzesi - At the moment, we are expecting only a modest set of measures from the central bank at next Thursday’s meeting, but the situation could change in the coming week.  All we are likely to get is an announcement of further unlimited threeand possibly six-month tenders, and possibly an extension of the commitment to offer unlimited weekly and monthly tenders beyond the autumn.  Meanwhile, the controversial sovereign bond purchases continue, albeit at a more moderate pace.  The ECB will also publish the new staff forecasts for GDP growth and inflation (ECB to revise up near-term growth and inflation forecast and make few changes for next year).

· a lot of European debt sales - Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, Germany, Portugal, Spain and Italy will issue up to EUR26 billion of bonds next week (the Spanish sale in particular will be watched as it will be the first one to come since the recent Fitch downgrade)

· Bernanke speaks – he gave an interview Mon night and will be testifying on Wed June 9 before the House 

· Congress returns from recess – watch for resumption of fin reg reform reconciliation process;

· Sen Lincoln run-off election June 8 (getting this out of the way could pave the way for amendment to be removed from legislation);

· earnings – NSM is the first company w/a May-end Q to post earnings (they come on Thurs)

· Treasury Sales – 3yrs on Tues June 8, 10s on Wed June 9, and 30s on Thurs June 10.  http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/auctions/auctions.pdf

· JPMorgan conferences – we will be hosting an Industrials conf June 8-9 and a China conf June 9-11 (given that the resource/industrials have been some of the weakest US sectors of late and people are very concerned about China slowing more than expected, these events are very timely).

Corporate Events Calendar

· Tues June 8: earnings before the open (DG, TLB); earnings after the close (TTWO, PLL), analyst meetings (PLXS, DPS); mid-Q update (TXN)

· Wed June 9: earnings before the open (RGEN, MTN, CIEN, BFB).  Earnings after the close (SHFL, MW).  Analyst meetings (TEN)

· Thurs June 10: earnings before the open (LULU, DLM); earnings after the close (NSM, FNSR, ARST); analyst meetings (MCO, AHL, JCI, IRF).

· Fri June 11: analyst meetings (Swiss Re)

Economics Calendar – Daily View

· Tuesday, June 8th: US (NFIB Small Business Optimism, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, ABC Consumer Confidence); Eurozone (German Trade Balance, French Central Gov’t Balance, German IP); Other (Swiss Unemployment Rate, CPI, Canada Housing Starts).

· Wednesday, June 9th: US (MBA Mortgage Applications, Wholesale Inventories, Fed’s Beige Book); Eurozone (UK Trade Balance, BRC May Shop Price Index); Other (Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision, Japan GDP).

· Thursday, June 10th: US (Trade Balance, Jobless Claims, Monthly Budget Statement); Eurozone (German CPI, BoE & ECB Meetings); Other (China – Trade Balance, PPI, CPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Australia Unemployment Rate, Japan Consumer Confidence).

· Friday, June 11th: US (Retail Sales, U. of Michigan Confidence, Business Inventories); Eurozone (UK NIESR May GDP est, UK IP); Other (n/a)

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