Thursday, June 10, 2010

ECB takeaways - on eco forecasts, they nudge up '10 growth and take down '11 growth $$

ECB takeaways - on eco forecasts, they nudge up '10 growth and take down '11 growth (they cut '11 b/c of "balance sheet adjustments", which means budget cuts will weigh on eco activity).  In terms of the debt purchases, there really wasn’t a lot of incremental details (i.e. Trichet still won’t say how much will be bought, which country's debt is being bought the most, and for how long the debt will be purchased for).  He still doesn't sound all that concerned w/the state of European sov debt markets.  Seems like Trichet willing to continue to be in the market buying debt in case spreads burst wider but he is going to allow time for the European plan (the EU440B SPV, budget cuts, etc) to play out (and the decent auctions this week - Portugal yesterday and Spain today - must be helping his confidence).  Really doesn’t give color on the recent euro moves ("euro is very credible currency").  they are extending the 3-month unlimited tenders (to help deal w/the upcoming 1yr tender expirtation on Jul 1 in amount of EU442B), which should help relieve worries of a tightening.  heading into the last meeting, there was a major discrepency between market expectations and what the ECB did/said (leading to the market sell-off).  into this meeting, that gap was much smaller and ECB/Trichet seems to have hit on most major points (which is a small positive)

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