Friday, June 25, 2010

FX - despite investors shunning risk this week, the dollar actually slumped in trading, dipping ~0.5% $DXY

Graph showing Japanese yen and Euro exchange r...
FX - despite investors shunning risk this week, the dollar actually slumped in trading, dipping
~0.5% (the DXY is now off 3.5% from its 6/7 highs). The pound made one of the biggest gains against the buck, up 0.6% (the pound is up ~4.9% since its lows on 5/18). There were two big drivers of the pound: 1) the UK budget layed out a set of credible fiscal austerity measures that was received well by both the rating agencies (S&P and Moody's both said it
reinforced the country's AAA rating) and investors; 2) the BOE minutes revealed a split  decision when it came to rates, w/one member unexpectedly advocating a hike. The euro was  pretty flattish on the week (the next big catalysts will be the publication of the stress tests in mid-Jul) while the yen jumped more than 1.5% (the yen was the biggest beneficiary of the  risk aversion trade). The Aussi dollar was mixed, finishing essentially flat after a volatile week (the currency rallied on the China yuan move, which was expected to boost commodity prices and therefore the commodity levered AUD, and then was aided a bit by the Rudd resignation).

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