Thursday, July 8, 2010

Catalysts behind the rally – some of the fundamental items being cited for the strength today; Shanghai index has climbed now for two consecutive $SPX $CAF

  • Encouraging earnings updates from Samsung and STT, both critical companies in tech and financials, respectively (although there was negative news on the earnings front too, inc. from FDO, FCN, and AFFX);
  • Economic headlines should quiet for next few weeks – we have received the bulk of the big June numbers and it won’t be until early Aug before the Jul figures cross;
  • A growing sense that the stress tests will be credible and assume draconian conditions for sovereign debt (steep haircuts, etc); while the CEBS statement didn’t contain many numerical specifics, it did say the sovereign debt assumptions would exceed the levels seen in the market back in May;
  • The euro continues to inch higher as concerns abate around the fiscal condition of the region (recent debt auctions, like Spain’s 10yr yesterday and Portugal’s bills today, are finding demand in the market; Greece is going to be coming to market next week for the first time since its bailout). A lot of people are taking note of the fact that the euro’s 20day MA is about to cross up through its 50day MA (the 20 hasn’t been north of the 50 for the euro since Dec ’09); related to this, a key pensions + jobs bill passed a first vote in the Greek parliament on Wed (although a more critical vote will take place on Thurs); )
  • In Washington, Congress remains on recess, although Obama made a relatively business-friendly address today, reiterating his intent to double US exports over the next 5 years, while Gasparino on Fox Business said that TSY Sec Geithner has embarked on a “charm offensive” to convince corporate America that the president is “business friendly
  • In China, the Shanghai index has climbed now for two consecutive sessions (something it hasn’t done since 6/22-21) as investors foresee an end of the largest capital raisings and as government officials wind down the implementation of new slowing initiatives (overnight officials said they wouldn’t be introducing any new measures to slow housing); 
  • Technicals – the sp500 made it up through the key 1040 level and also up through 1050 (per M Krauss Tues night: Bulls gain above 1050 and 1068);
  • LeBron? While it’s hard to find a link between the broader market and LeBron James, the sp500 hit its lows for the afternoon at 2:40pm, which is right when Newsday posted an article revealing that James will host his Thurs press conf from Greenwich, CT (sparking speculation he will chose the Knicks – MSG shrs rallied after the article hit).

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