Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Catalysts to Watch; The country’s major retailers will post June same-store-sales[BOE feel recent inflationary pressures will prove temporary]

Steve Jobs while presenting the iPad in San Fr...


  • Catalysts to Watch
  • · The week of Mon Jul 5 promises to be very quiet as US markets are closed today (for the Jul 4 holidays) and Congress is on recess (they return week of Jul 12). 
  • On the corporate front, the CQ2 earnings season doesn’t kick-off until Mon Jul 12 (AA comes that night), although we may see some preannouncements in the coming week (it has been a quiet preannouncement season so far). 
  • The country’s major retailers will post June same-store-sales Thurs morning, providing some insight into the state of consumer demand.  We could see June sales from a few other companies (inc. the airlines and some Asian tech firms). 
  • News flow will be quiet in Washington w/Congress on recess although there are some important items on the agenda when politicians return the week of Jul 12 (there will be intense lobbying to block Senate passage of the fin reg reform bill, although w/Cantwell flipping Thurs night, it seems like at least 60 “yays” exist).
  • The biggest events will most likely come from Europe Thurs morning when the BOE and ECB both hold meetings.  For the latter, the Trichet press conf at 8:30amET Thurs morning will be in focus (there aren’t going to be any major policy announcements, but investors will be watching for any update on sovereign bond purchases, the recent tenders, and bank stress tests, etc). 
  • For the BOE(Bank of England), there isn’t expected to be any policy announcements either, although it has become clear in the last 1.5 weeks that there is a rift forming when it comes to rate policy (w/some, like Sentence, calling for outright hikes, while others, like King, feel recent inflationary pressures will prove temporary). 
  • The issuance of sovereign debt in Europe will slow (only Austria and Germany are planning sales) while in the US we will hear about the size of the next round of TSY auctions on Thurs Jul 8 (the TSY auctions themselves will take place Jul 12-14). 
  • The Allen & Co Sun Valley conf takes place Jul 6-10 and could produce some headlines in the world of media/telecoms (AAPL’s Steve Jobs will be attending this year). 
  • Reports indicate that LeBron James will make his decision on Mon. 
  • Economic calendar on the light side next week.  In the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing index will hit on Tuesday.  In Europe, Retail sales, Composite PMI and Q1 GDP will hit for the Eurozone.  Out of Asia, China’s Business Climate and Entrepreneur Confidence indices will cross along with Machine Orders and Eco Watchers surveys out of Japan.
  • Treasury auctions: the Treasury will auction 3yrs on Mon Jul 12, 10yrs on Tues Jul 13, and 30s on Wed Jul 14.  The size of these auctions will be released on Thurs Jul 8.  http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/auctions/auctions.pdf
  • · Allen & Co media conf in Sun Valley, Idaho Jul 6-10

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