Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Economics Headlines;US Housing;US Confidence;US Regional Fed Surveys –

Economics Headlines
·         US  Housing – CaseShiller index for May came in +4.61% vs. the St +3.85%. 
·         US Confidence - The Conference Board index of consumer confidence declined to 50.4 in July; this is 3.9 points below the upwardly revised 54.3 level for June. The index had been increasing between February and May but fell 8.4 points in June. This additional decline in the July index along with the steep drop down in the preliminary Michigan sentiment survey for July both indicate an increasingly pessimistic view on the economy. The Conference Board index is currently at its lowest level since February.  Silver  
·         US Regional Fed Surveys – the Fed surveys for Jul have been coming in pretty weak although a small beat today – first it was Empire/Philadelphia and yesterday it was Chicago and Dallas (all of these came in below expectations).  Today, the Richmond survey came in a bit ahead of the St. 
·         Eurozone money and credit data still encouraging in June - In aggregate, bank loan growth stayed at 0.2%oya in June. But, the €18bn increase in June took the increase since January to over €90bn; an increase of 2% annualized. In the detail, household loans continued to expand at over a 3% annualised pace, driven by mortgages, which should be positive for the housing market. Loans to nonfinancial corporates reversed the large gain seen in May. But, after having declined sharply during the recession, corporate lending has stabilised.  Annual M3 growth rose to 0.2%oya, the first annual gain since October last year. The ECB will continue to see low inflationary pressure in this, but it may also note the signs of improvement.

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