Friday, July 23, 2010

PCs - mixed indications so far this earnings season; some signs that consumer PCs softened $STX

PCs - mixed indications so far this earnings season; some signs that consumer PCs softened (comments from WDC, STX, ISIL, and even INTC) but most saying enterprise still going strong (INTC and MSFT v bullish on enterprise refresh cycle). We don’t hear from the big OEMs (DELL, HPQ) until later in Aug (both have Jul-end qtrs). JPMorgan (Gokul Hariharan) published a note Thurs morning on notebook trends - “Demand trends in July appear fairly weak led by weakness in Europe, mild slowdown in US, and inventory correction in consumer notebooks in China. Netbook inventory also appears to be higher than normal. We expect Acer, HPQ and Toshiba July NB shipments to miss expectations, while ASUS and Dell appear to be on track. Aggregate notebook ODM shipments should decline 10-15% MoM in July, the first time since 2001 that July shipments trend down MoM. The only bright spot appears to be corporate demand, which is tracking well

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