Monday, August 30, 2010

Catalysts to Watch:Economic Calendar; China’s manufacturing PMIs will hit overnight Tues

· the big focus for the coming week will be the Aug economic numbers published around the world.  China’s manufacturing PMIs will hit overnight Tues (so US investors will see Wed morning Sept 1) and its services PMIs come overnight Thurs (so US investors will see Fri morning Sept 3).  The St is forecasting the manufacturing PMI to stay above the 50 expansionary threshold (seen coming in at 51.5).  In the US, the focus will be on the manufacturing ISM (out Wed morning – the St is forecasting 53) and the payrolls figure on Fri (the St is forecasting private adds of 46K although some fear the number could be negative). 

· The minutes from the Aug 10 FOMC meeting are due to hit on Tues Aug 31 (given the WSJ called this meeting the “most contentious” of the Bernanke era, investors will be keenly watching for any indications on the policy outlook and what would trigger certain actions). 

· In Europe, the focus will be on the ECB Meeting on Thurs morning. 

· On the corporate front, things are relatively quiet.  The world’s auto companies post Aug sales on Wed Sept 1 and the big US retailers will have their same-store-sales on Thurs morning.  Some of the earnings releases in focus: DG Tues, HNZ/HOV on Wed, UTIW/HRB on Thurs.  NVLS will be the first official mid-Q update for FQ3 tech (they come Thurs after the close).  AAPL will be hosting a much anticipated product launch event Wed (1pmET) at which it is expected to launch new iPods and an iTV refresh

· Former Lehman chief D Fuld and Fed chairman Bernanke will both be speaking before the FCIC later this week (the news hit late in trading on Mon). 

Economic Calendar – Daily View

· Monday, Aug 30th: US (PCE, Personal Income/Spending, Dallas Fed); Eurozone (UK Nationwide House Prices, Eurozone Business Climate, Consumer Confidence, Industrial Confidence, Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey); Other (Australia – New Home Sales, Business Confidence, Japan IP, Retail Sales).

· Tuesday, Aug 31st: US (S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, FOMC Meeting Minutes); Eurozone (German Unemployment Rate, UK Mortgage Approvals, Consumer Credit, Eurozone CPI, Unemployment Rate); Other (China PMIs, Japan Housing Starts, Switzerland Consumption Indicator, Canada GDP).

· Wednesday, Sept 1st: US (MBA Mortgage Applications, Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Employment Change, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid, Auto Sales); Eurozone (German PMI Manufacturing, Eurozone PMI Manufacturing); Thursday Sept 2nd (UK PMI Construction, Eurozone GDP, Household Consumption, ECB Meeting & Interest Rate Decision, German Retail Sales); Other (Australia GDP, Switzerland PMI).

· Thursday, Sept 2nd: US (Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, Pending Home Sales, Retail Same Store Sales); Eurozone (UK PMI Construction, Eurozone GDP, Household Consumption, ECB Meeting & Interest Rate Decision, German Retail Sales); Other (Australia Trade Balance, Switzerland GDP, Retail Sales, China Non-manufacturing PMIs).

· Friday, Sept 3rd: US (Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment rate, ISM Non-Manufacturing); Eurozone (German PMI Services, Eurozone PMI Composite, & Services, Eurozone Retail Sales); Other (Switzerland CPI).

Corporate Events Calendar

· Mon Aug 30: earnings after the close (WINN, DCI, SWS)

· Tues Aug 31: earnings before the open (BNS, DG, Irish Life earnings, DSW); analyst meetings (VMW)

· Wed Sept 1: earnings before the open (Vivendi, LTXC, GCO, JOYG, BR’b, BGP, HNZ); earnings after the close (HOV, OXM, PSS, SAI), sales releases(autos)

· Thurs Sept 2: earnings before the open (SCMR, UTIW, TD); earnings after the close (FNSR, SEAC, TTWO, HRB, NVLS mid-Q update, COO, ARST);sales (retailers will post their Aug sales) 

· Fri Sept 3: sales (WAG, FAST)

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