Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Consumer Shares :MFs have become more aggressive on the sell-side into strength and HFs laying out shorts

  • Consumer shares lower with Discretionary dn inline w/tape and Staples holding in better. BIG shares traded down and underperformed retail after Q3 was guided below the St. (Q2 came in a penny better driven by higher share repurchases and guidance was raise in large part due to higher share repurchases)
  • AEO shares fell ahead of earnings tomorrow and will provide the next datapoint for the group on how BTS is trending (note that this week and the next 2 weeks are the peak of the BTS selling season).
  • In Hardlines, HD/LOW were flattish despite the weaker housing #s. RSH shares traded lower to start the session despite the announcement of a $300M ASR but have moved higher as we head into midday (now +0.5%).
  • On the desk, we’re evenly split buy vs. sell from MFs while HF flows are predominantly covering on today’s pullback. We are however seeing MFs become more aggressive on the sell-side into strength and HFs laying out shorts into pops. In the Restaurant space, BKC shares rose 1% after earnings came in a penny better (ex-tax benefit). Little action on the Consumer Staples space as SAFM continues to move higher post yesterday’s earnings (and commentary that it was shipping product to Russia).

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