Friday, August 27, 2010

MBA Q2 mortgage report – initially, the headlines Thurs morning helped rally the banks as overall delinquencies fell.  However, upon closer review, there was an ominous development: the deterioration of early-stage delinquencies.  From the MBA: “The disappointing news is that, after declining since the beginning of 2009, the rate of short-term delinquencies is going up and the increase in these short-term delinquencies may ultimately drive the foreclosure measures back up. The percent of loans one payment behind had peaked in the first quarter of 2009 at 3.77 percent and fell to 3.31 percent by the end of 2009.   Unfortunately that rate has now risen to 3.51 percent.  The causes are likely two-fold.  First, 30-day delinquencies are very closely tied to first-time claims for unemployment insurance.  The number of first-time claims fell through most of 2009 but leveled off in 2010 and have started to rise again.  This increase in unemployment directly impacts mortgage delinquencies.  Second, some percentage of the loans modified over the last several years have become delinquent again because those borrowers, by definition, have weak credit”

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