US jobs – decline in Census workers is expected to depress government employment by 145,000.

US jobs – update from M Feroli - Labor market data received since the beginning of the week has been mixed to slightly positive. On the positive side of the ledger, both the ISM manufacturing and nonmanufacturing employment indexes moved up, each by just under a point, and the ADP report pointed to positive private employment growth. On the less favorable side, the poor print on jobless claims lifted the centered-moving average for claims during the payroll survey week.  A decline in Census workers is expected to depress government employment by 145,000.  In the private sector, we look for a big drop off in construction employment, though former Census workers and UI recipients could support employment in private services.  JPMorgan ests: headline 25K loss; private adds +120K; hours +0.4%; earnings +0.1%; unemployment rate 9.6%; Street ests: headline 65K loss; private adds +90K; earnings +0.1%; unemployment rate 9.6%.  Market ests: unlike prior months, there haven’t been a lot of “whispers” talked about in terms of upside/downside scenarios; it seems like the private number would have to be outside the ~65-130K range to really get people excited