The chances of a recession increased over 1000% from the May non Farm payroll number to the June None Farm Pay Rolls

This page presents recession probabilities for the United States obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see:

Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, “A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle  Dating Methods,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49

source

Notes: These probabilities were generated using monthly data on non-farm payroll
employment, industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments,
and real manufacturing and trade sales. All data was obtained on August 30, 2010.
Shaded areas indicate NBER recession dating.