The labor market is showing signs of gradual healing. Friday's report showed payrolls rising 162,000 in March, with net upward revisions of 62,000 to Jan/Feb. Census related hiring totaled a less-than-anticipated 48,000, sothe ex-census increase in jobs totaled 176,000, versus our forecast of +150,000.The report also provided more support for the notion that the unemployment rate has peaked for this cycle. In fact, the household survey showed another month of very strong employment growth (+264,000).From a broader perspective, a pickup in employment growth is inevitable given that the economy's output has started to expand. History tells us that a rapid rise in productivity is fairly typical during the early stages of economic recovery, but this surge in productivity cannot be sustained indefinitely. Additional labor will be needed to sustain the rise in output.
Showing posts with label Employment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Employment. Show all posts
Friday, April 9, 2010
April 6, 2010 Morgan Stanley Strategy Forum $SPY $USO
The labor market is showing signs of gradual healing. Friday's report showed payrolls rising 162,000 in March, with net upward revisions of 62,000 to Jan/Feb. Census related hiring totaled a less-than-anticipated 48,000, sothe ex-census increase in jobs totaled 176,000, versus our forecast of +150,000.The report also provided more support for the notion that the unemployment rate has peaked for this cycle. In fact, the household survey showed another month of very strong employment growth (+264,000).From a broader perspective, a pickup in employment growth is inevitable given that the economy's output has started to expand. History tells us that a rapid rise in productivity is fairly typical during the early stages of economic recovery, but this surge in productivity cannot be sustained indefinitely. Additional labor will be needed to sustain the rise in output.
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