Thursday, January 7, 2010

2010 Ecommerce Survey & Outlook Consumer Internet

2010 Ecommerce Survey & Outlook Consumer Internet

Summary: In order to ascertain the state of the e-commerce industry and
key trends heading into 2010, we conducted a survey of 50 online retailers.

Differentiation: Based on our survey, 4Q09 e-commerce performance was
solid with the sellers we polled suggesting a 6%-7% y/y increase, higher
than comScore’s +2%-3% tracking. E-commerce growth should accelerate
in 2010 to ~10% vs. ~1% for the full year 2009 (based on comScore data),
driven by electronics & computers.

We believe that there is still ample room for e-commerce penetration to
increase. We note our 2010 projection implies that e-commerce will amount
to 6% of adjusted U.S. retail sales in 2010, growing to about 8% by 2015.
Our survey also compares seller satisfaction for eBay’s marketplace and
Amazon’s third-party platform. Overall, respondents expressed a slight
preference for eBay as 55% of respondents chose eBay as their preferred
selling platform versus 45% for Amazon.

Stock Calls: In this note, we also provide 4Q09 previews for Neutral-rated
AMZN and EBAY. Overall, our estimates for both are unchanged. We expect
a strong quarter from AMZN, with 35% revenue growth (x-Zappos
acquisition), near the top end of guidance. We have also boosted our AMZN
price target from $105 to $125 to reflect higher long term sales estimates.
For eBay, with a relatively healthy e-commerce backdrop, improving user
trends, and the absence of FX headwinds, we expect $2.3 bil. in revenue
(+11.8% y/y) and adjusted EPS of $0.41 for 4Q09, in line with guidance.

[source- credit suisse]

Full Report below

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