We are Overweight AXP, as we expect the company to be one of the first credit card lenders to emerge from the credit
downturn, supported by its affluent customer base. Charge-offs have declined from a 2Q09 peak of 9.7% to 7.3%
in 4Q09, and we expect improvement to continue in 2010. We expect its customer base and rich rewards offerings to drive up
AmEx’s share of US Personal Consumption from 4.2% in 2009 to 4.8% by 2012 (Exhibit 1). We do not anticipate any interchange
legislation that would materially alter AXP’s business model.
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