Saturday, March 27, 2010

Monthly Auto Review: Mar. 2010[JPMorgan] $F $TM

• Light vehicle selling rate (page 2). We forecast March US LV SAAR of 11.5MM units (+17% y/y; +11% m/m). We expect GM +28% y/y, Ford +24% y/y, and Chrysler +5% y/y. Feb US LV sales declined 4% m/m (10.8MM SAAR), while sales in Western Europe fell -5% m/m (14.1MM SAAR). Sales in China surged +112% y/y, while Brazil/Argentina was +10% y/y.
• US dealer inventories (page 4). Industry inventory levels were 65 days at Feb-end vs. 69 days in Jan, 51 days in Dec, 60 in Nov, and just 28 in Aug. Days supply were 71 at GM, 71 at Ford, and 56 at Chrysler. GMT900 pickup/F-series were 90/93 days.
• Market shares (page 7). Chrysler (+270 bps m/m), F (+158) and Honda (+69) gained market share in February, while GM (-285 bps) and Toyota (-135) lost their share of market.
• Retail incentives and marketing costs (page 14). Incentives rose 7% m/m and fell -7% y/y in Feb. Chrysler led the industry with $3,557 of incentives per vehicle in Feb (-30% y/y), while Ford (-7.3% y/y) had the lowest incentives in Feb ($2,816) among the D3.
• Raw materials (page 17). JPM weighted commodity index was up (4.9% m/m) in March, driven by HR and CR steel +5.5% and +4.7% m/m, stainless steel +8.7% m/m and by higher rubber prices (natural +4.2% m/m, synthetic 5.4% m/m).
• Economic data (page 18). Manheim used vehicle prices index (proxy to wholesale used vehicle prices) increased after remaining flat for 3 consecutive months in Jan, Dec, and Nov after falling for the first time in 9 months in October (-1% m/m) post- Cash for Clunkers. U of M car-buying conditions was flat in February.
• Auto-finance data (page 19). Latest-available car loan rates (January) stood at 3.9% vs. 3.3% in December and a peak of 8.2% in January.


Monthly Auto Review Mar. 2010

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