Friday, April 9, 2010

Americas Equity Morning Summary [Morgan Stanley & Co] $SPY $GS $APPL

Economics Calenda
04/13: Trade Balance Goods and Services, BOP basis (February), forecast: -$38.8 bil
04/14: Retail Sales Ex-Autos (March), forecast: +1.2% / +0.7%
04/14: Consumer Price Index Core (March), forecast: +0.1% / +0.1%
04/15: Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization (March), forecast: +1.0% / 73.3%
04/16: Housing Starts (March), forecast: 565,000
ISM (March)
Stronger-than-expected report. Although some of the upside was attributable to an unusual rise in inventories and a likely unsustainable
jump in vendor deliveries, there were solid gains in the key orders and production categories. In fact, the export orders index soared to a 20-
year high of 61.5. Also, the price index rose to a new 18-month high, on rising quotes for a number of the metals.
Construction Spending (February)
Mixed report. Construction spending held up significantly better than we expected in February (-1.3%) given the severe weather – which
Historical government spending in the United S...has been the case for just about all the surprisingly resilient February data reported so far – but there were sizable downward revisions to
prior months. These revisions combined with the better February outcome and resulting assumption of a somewhat smaller rebound in
March led us to trim our Q1 GDP forecast marginally to +2.5% from +2.6%, with residential investment looking a bit better but business
investment in structures and government spending weaker.

Employment Situation (March)
Weaker-than-expected report, although many of the underlying details were stronger than the headline reading. For example, net upward
revisions to Jan/Feb payrolls amounted to 62,000. Also, the add-on from census workers was only 48,000 (vs an expected +100,000). And,
the household survey showed another sharp gain in employment which helped to hold the jobless rate to 9.7%.


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