Capital One Financial (COF) March Credit Quality $COF Credit Suisse

Raising estimates. Credit Suisse raised there 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates to $2.00 and $3.75 (old: $1.75 and $3.25), respectively to reflect a lower run rate of charge offs and incremental reserve release. Our 1Q aggregate loss rate forecast is 6.36%, nearly flat with 4Q. We expect reserve levels to decline $270mn ($0.40 per share) in 1Q given the runoff in the portfolio and improvement in delinquencies. Reserve release is the largest variable in our model.

Americas Equity Morning Summary [Morgan Stanley & Co] $SPY $GS $APPL

Economics Calenda

04/13: Trade Balance Goods and Services, BOP basis (February), forecast: -$38.8 bil

04/14: Retail Sales Ex-Autos (March), forecast: +1.2% / +0.7%

04/14: Consumer Price Index Core (March), forecast: +0.1% / +0.1%

04/15: Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization (March), forecast: +1.0% / 73.3%

04/16: Housing Starts (March), forecast: 565,000

ISM (March)

Stronger-than-expected report. Although some of the upside was attributable to an unusual rise in inventories and a likely unsustainable

jump in vendor deliveries, there were solid gains in the key orders and production categories. In fact, the export orders index soared to a 20-

year high of 61.5. Also, the price index rose to a new 18-month high, on rising quotes for a number of the metals.

Construction Spending (February)

Mixed report. Construction spending held up significantly better than we expected in February (-1.3%) given the severe weather – which

has been the case for just about all the surprisingly resilient February data reported so far – but there were sizable downward revisions to

prior months. These revisions combined with the better February outcome and resulting assumption of a somewhat smaller rebound in

March led us to trim our Q1 GDP forecast marginally to +2.5% from +2.6%, with residential investment looking a bit better but business

investment in structures and government spending weaker.